The most important question for any business is – when you need to start placing orders to replenish your stock. This is exactly what DataQlick is doing. It calculates Sales average for each product and it accounts for shortages or overages in inventory on hand.
One thing that you can agree with: NO ONE HAS A CRYSTAL BALL!
We are not fortune-tellers. What we believe is in systematic approach of “neutral stance”. Sudden spike in demand today does not mean that you need to start a chasing game. Your customers may just overstock their inventories and may not need any more for a while. So, you have to give time and see if demand will sustain over time. Same is for sudden drop in sales – may be it caused by the same overstock situation described earlier and your customer wants to deplete their inventory overages.
DataQlick forecasting approach is to work with calculated BASE (monthly sales average) for each product and use Exponential Moving Average Calculation model.
Exponential moving averages reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent sales quantity. The weighting applied to the most recent time depends on the number of periods in the moving average. In our case we generally look at last 6 months of sales, but give more weight to recent events.
DataQlick has multiple ways of calculating BASE standard, conservative, aggressive and a custom. Each BASE is configurable on lowest product level.
If you wish – you can contact us with your formula to be incorporated into BASE calculation.
We are working on new release and soon will provide ability for user to define BASE for any specific product. So, technically user can provide its own forecast for any item he/she wants. Simple.
The most important thing is to understand:
How we calculate averages is not as much important as your ability to follow through.
We provide you solid tools for quick analysis and clear visibility to your sales in instant. You must decide whether you want to act or not on changes in your supply and demand outlook.
Use analysis section to get larger picture and visualize trends in beautiful charts (all conveniently prepared for you).
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